Best Bets 12.5.23

Yesterday’s Recap

We went 4-1 on Saturday! After a couple days off, it’s time to get back on the horse with another fun slate. There are a lot of great situational spots to bet on tonight.

UMass -5.5 vs. South Florida ✅

Florida State +12.5 vs. North Carolina ✅

St. Bonaventure -9.5 vs. Buffalo ✅

Wright State +3.5 vs. Davidson ❌

Michigan/Oregon Over 151.5 ✅

Overall record: 36-32-3

Today’s Bets

*All lines via FanDuel. Please bet responsibly.*

Michigan State -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

First off, always put action on the game you’ll be in attendance for. Second, Wisconsin is riding high off their rivalry win over Marquette. They’ve got Arizona after this one. It’s hard to overlook Michigan State, but I think there’s a decent chance Wisconsin comes out a little flat tonight. General principle game applies here too, the unranked team is favored over the ranked. Lay the points with Sparty.

Princeton -7.5 vs. Drexel

Drexel just beat Villanova. Biggest win of the season! Now they have to turn around and guard Princeton’s offense for 40 minutes. It’s a brutal spot for the Dragons. Lay the points with the much better offensive team.

Florida -20.5 vs. Merrimack

Great opportunity here for the Gators to get back on track. The biggest statistical mismatch in this game is on the offensive glass. The Gators are 5th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Merrimack is 318th in offensive rebound percentage allowed. The Gators may miss a few times, but they’re going to get ample opportunities for second chance points. Lay the big number.

Butler -24.5 vs. Buffalo

Butler has been bludgeoning bad teams and Buffalo is a bad team. Butler’s average margin of victory against opponents outside the KenPom top-125 is 36 points. Buffalo is 338th. We’ll take the points.

Providence +5.5 vs Oklahoma

The other day I wrote how I was enamored by Providence’s defensive tenacity and now it’s time to put my money where my mouth is. We’re banking on the defense traveling and keeping it within the number. Oklahoma is 7-0, but their non-conference strength of schedule is 353rd. Take the candy with the toughest team the Sooners have faced so far.

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