College Hoops
Mailbag 11.27.23
Time for another edition of the weekly mailbag! You have questions, I have answers. Let’s dive in.
What is the ceiling for Ohio State? – @ClarkieCaps
I’m really impressed with the jump Ohio State has made so early in the season. Chris Holtmann and his staff did a great job developing their talented freshman class from last season. Bruce Thornton and Roddy Gayle were tremendous against an Alabama team that has some serious backcourt talent. Then they beat the brakes off Santa Clara, who was 6-0 coming into the game. In addition to those two, you’ve got Jamison Battle and Zed Key giving you reliable production and a veteran presence on the floor. Early on, this looks like a team that can finish in the top four of the Big Ten. When it comes to March, they’ve got the guard play required to win a few games. There’s second weekend potential in Columbus.
After these first couple weeks rank the top 5 in the ACC? – @daniel_richmond
I’m glad you didn’t ask me to rank the whole thing because there’s no point after the first ten. The top of the league has two great, potentially elite teams in Duke and Miami. They’re easily 1A and 1B and I’m not sure if you can really differentiate them just yet. North Carolina is firmly in third behind those two. Then I’d probably say Clemson and Virginia to round out the top five. Pitt has an argument for fifth and so did Virginia Tech before they got smacked by FAU. The league is probably looking at five, *maybe* six teams in the NCAA tournament right now.
1A. Duke
1B. Miami
3. North Carolina
4. Clemson
5. Virginia
Who wins the SEC-ACC challenge? – @willamcjames23
Pardon my sh*t circling abilities. I have the SEC running away with this one. It’s just a much better and deeper league top to bottom. The bottom of the ACC is horrendous and it’ll show on Tuesday and Wednesday. The games I had trouble picking were Miami/Kentucky and Duke/Arkansas. I sided with the home teams in both, though I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the ACC teams escaped with a win. Miami/Kentucky might come down to whoever has the ball last. Defense optional in Rupp. I think Arkansas is going to play their best game of the year in a bounce back spot at Bud Walton. It’s Duke’s first true road game of the year and man is it a doozy.
How many teams does the MW get in? – @theoriginalbpd
The Mountain West is one of my favorite conferences in the sport. San Diego State finally got the monkey off the collective back of the league, making the Final Four after years of MW teams getting bounced in the first round. I think (and hope) we’ll see four teams make the tournament. Colorado State is a wagon. They’ve got 6-7 seed potential. San Diego State will be there again. The other two spots will go to Nevada/Utah State/Boise State/New Mexico. I was high on Boise at the beginning of the year, but they’ve missed some crucial resume building opportunities early on. Danny Sprinkle has kept the train rolling at Utah State. Steve Alford has an electric backcourt and believe it or not he can still coach a little bit. The Lobos missed a chance at a signature win at Saint Mary’s early on, but have some chances to make up for it against some quality mid-major competition. Should be a fun league to keep an eye on in February/March.
Is Delaware a legit CAA contender? – @wicksachs1
The ass kickin’ chickens are 5-2 to start the year, but it’s a little deceiving. Their best win is over Air Force and the two losses are to KenPom top-150 opponents. The pieces are certainly there. Jyare Davis has been HOOPIN’ and he alone will win them a bunch of games in a league that is severely top heavy. The rest of the supporting cast is old and old wins. But, this league starts and ends with UNC Wilmington, Hofstra and Charleston. One of those three will win the conference and my bet is on UNCW. Delaware should be in contention for a top four/five finish.
Without giving details, what is the craziest recruitment you have heard about? (Things that happened behind the scenes, bags dropping, etc). – @hoosier_sm
The “craziest” recruitments usually happen when there’s a split decision in the kid’s camp. When there’s too many hands in the pot, it just gets messy. NIL has made it even more insane because schools will specifically target one member of the family they know is on their side and work them until the very end. There were a few portal decisions that were literally compromises among family members.
Some other fun things that happened last spring:
- A mid-major coach earned a visit from a high-major transfer because he paid for a night out at a strip club for all of his friends (the kid didn’t end up going there)
- A mid-major transfer committed to a high-major school after the school paid for a house to move his entire family
- A high-major transfer committed to another high-major school after they offered to pay for unlimited flights home whenever he wanted to see his girlfriend
- There were a handful of guys who verbally committed on visits, then turned around and used the commitment as leverage to get a big offer from a competing school (it worked every time)
Best mid-major freshman? – @CBBRoundup
It’s Malik Mack at Harvard. This kid is averaging 21.1ppg, 5.1asts, 3.9rebs and 1.0stls in his first seven games. Over the last 30 years, the only freshmen to average those numbers for a full season were R.J. Cole, Trae Young and Markelle Fultz. Pretty good company! Mack’s best games have come against the best competition, too. He just dropped 27pts against Indiana and had 32pts against UMass. I hate to be that guy, but this kid is going to get tampered with if he hasn’t already. He went to Harvard for a reason, so hopefully he sticks around and turns into an Ivy legend.
Is the MVC gonna be a 2 bid conference? – @Matteberflus1
As much as I would love for that to happen, I don’t think it’s feasible with how good the top four/five teams are. They’re going to cannibalize each other in conference play. Bradley and Drake are the clear frontrunners right now and both of them would need to win 27-28 games to get at-large consideration. Bradley is in the best position to earn a bid because of their wins over Vermont, Tulane, Utah State and UAB. Drake has some opportunities for quality wins against UAB, Nevada and Saint Louis, but none of those teams move the needle enough on their own to make a statement. The MVC is off to its best start in years, but I don’t know if it’s enough to warrant multiple bids.
Your personal BYU ranking considering their metrics and the eye test? – @chase_messer44
The Cougs have been awesome to start the season. They’ve obliterated their weaker competition and soundly beat the better teams they’ve faced (San Diego State, NC State and Arizona State). Nerds love blowouts so they’re sitting 10th in KenPom right now. Do I think BYU is the 10th best team in the country? No, but they’re 100% deserving of a ranking in the polls this week. I’d probably put them in the 18-20 range, personally. They’re sharing the ball and jacking up threes like it’s nobody’s business. Just like every Mark Pope team, they’re solid enough defensively that they could survive an off night shooting the ball, too. I’m very intrigued to see how this team does in Big 12 play. It’s their first time going through the gauntlet and man is it tough on the body both mentally and physically. If they can manage a .500 record in conference, this team is dancing on the 5-6 seed line.
How does Arkansas comeback from the dead this year? – @DavidConrad73
I picked Arkansas to make the Final Four at the beginning of the year and I’m digging my heels in. First and foremost, it sounds like Tramon Mark is going to be okay. He’s been Arkansas’ best player so far and without him, they’d be in trouble. The biggest issue for the Hogs right now is the assist to turnover ratio. The perils of being transfer heavy – guys figuring out new roles and how to play with each other for the first few weeks of the season. In their three losses, Arkansas is averaging 6.6 assists and 14.3 turnovers. That’s not going to get it done in the SEC. When these guys figure out how to play together, they’ll be extremely dangerous. I think we’ll see a bounce back performance against Duke. I #TrustInMuss.
Follow @trillydonovan on X (Twitter). Stay tuned to burnerball.com to keep up with all things coaching carousel and transfer portal.
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