Off The Burner 12.3.23

Welcome to Off the Burner – a semi-regular stream of consciousness about college hoops.

Big brand teams should schedule games vs. big brand teams.

The college basketball community was blessed with UConn traveling to Kansas on Friday night thanks to the Big East/Big 12 Challenge. We shouldn’t have to rely on special events to get games like this though! The big brands of the sport should be more than willing to line up and face each other every year. There is literally nothing to lose! UConn came away still looking like a national title contender because they held their own at Phog Allen without potential lottery pick Stephon Castle. They dropped one spot in KenPom and likely won’t see much (if any) movement in the polls. Meanwhile, Kansas gets an extra Quad 1 win in the bank in case things go sideways in B12 play. Both teams win and we the fans win. Do this more.

DePaul’s struggles continue.

The Blue Demons were run off the floor in the second half by a good Iowa State team on Friday. Tony Stubblefield’s squad is 1-6 and there aren’t many opportunities for wins coming up. Athletic director DeWayne Peevy is in a tough spot, having already addressed the slow start. The next time he makes any public comments on the situation will likely be when a change is made. I reached out to a few sources over the weekend and was told nothing is expected to happen in the immediate future, despite this ominous tweet from CoachingChanges. A handful of coaches are already working the back channels to line themselves up for the job, should it open. This will be a situation to monitor in the coming weeks.

Human nature (and UNCW) beats Kentucky.

There is no age group more susceptible to human nature than 18-23 year-olds. College basketball has a funny way of proving that time and time again, leaving Kentucky as its latest victim. The Wildcats just beat the doors off eighth-ranked Miami on Tuesday night. Then, after days of praise and adoration, they had to turn around and play UNC Wilmington.

The Seahawks are probably the best team in the CAA. They’re old and tough and they returned a majority of production from their team that won 24 games last season. It was the worst possible opponent Kentucky could have played following their win on Tuesday. It went exactly how human nature intended it. A slow start followed by an energy draining comeback that left them out of sorts in the last few minutes. Kentucky is going to be fine. They’re just young and we were reminded of the power human nature has over the youth.

It’s not personal, it’s just college basketball. https://t.co/tcaexAUrD1 pic.twitter.com/LL4CgkDfEV

— Trilly Donovan (@trillydonovan) December 2, 2023

Villanova has a three-point problem.

Villanova finished sixth in the first ever six-team Big 5 and the splits on this team are fascinating.

Villanova’s record vs. teams from Philadelphia: 0-3.

Villanova’s record vs. teams not from Philadelphia: 6-0.

— Trilly Donovan (@trillydonovan) December 2, 2023

It starts and ends with the three-point line. In their six wins, the Cats average 35.4% from three and give up an average of 31.6%. In their three losses, Nova averages 24.2% from three and gives up an average of 47.7%. They’re 3rd in 3PA/FGA on offense and 347th in 3PA/FGA on defense. They’re launching them and get launched on at nearly the same rate.

If you look at the makeup of the teams they lost to, the results make sense. Penn is 43rd in the country in 3p%. St. Joe’s is 4th in the country in 3PA/3FGA. Drexel is 24th in 3p% defense. The wins are against teams that are middle of the pack or below average in nearly every three-point shooting metric.

As for the calls on Kyle Neptune’s job? I think those are a year too premature unless the Cats miss the tournament again. Villanova invested a lot of money into this roster and I still think this team can make a deep run in March if they make the right adjustments.

Duke needs to learn how to overcome adversity.

Duke has three losses before Christmas in consecutive seasons for the first time since Mike Krzyzewski’s second and third seasons in Durham (1982-1983). That nugget can be taken a myriad of different ways and it just goes to show changing coaches is hard, even at Duke. The Blue Devils’ biggest issue right now is trouble overcoming adversity and game pressure. They’ve played three games decided by five points or less and they’ve lost them all. Last year, all nine of their losses were away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. A lot of these struggles can be attributed to two things: inexperience and a lack of locker room cohesion.

Jon Scheyer is a much more aggressive scheduler than his predecessor (and that’s a great thing). The results are always going to be mixed when your biggest contributors are also your youngest players. They’ll learn from their mistakes, but there’s a tension in that locker room that needs to be fixed now. You can see it on the court – a lot of hero ball and not playing for each other. Blank stares on the bench. I’ve heard it off the court – a divide between the old guys and the new. Whatever the issue is, Duke needs to fix it. Once they do, they’re talented enough to win it all.

FAU is still elite.

The Beach Boys are all the way back. FAU is 7-1 after sweeping the Field of 68 Tipoff. They beat previously undefeated Liberty by 25 and a very tough Charleston team by 16. The Owls are extremely difficult to guard, with six players averaging at least 9ppg. They also share the ball well, with three guys averaging over 3asts. Vlad Goldin’s emergence is what makes Florida Atlantic more dangerous than last year. He’s averaging 15.4ppg & 7.1rebs, up from 10.2ppg & 6.5rebs last year. There’s something to be said about roster continuity. That Bryant loss will go down as one of the most bizarre results of the season.

Princeton hasn’t missed a beat.

After a Sweet 16 run last year, Mitch Henderson has the Tigers 8-0 to start the year. And they haven’t played an easy schedule either. Princeton has road wins at Rutgers, Hofstra and Duquesne. Sophomore Xaivian Lee has been tremendous. He’s averaging 19ppg after coming off the bench and averaging 13 minutes per game last season. Matt Allocco has also made a huge jump, averaging 17.5ppg. Someone needs to hire this entire staff all the way down to the managers. They do things the right way and develop guys better than anyone in the country. Mitch and the gang still have to get through a tough Ivy league, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them dancing a second year in a row.

College basketball is the superior sport.

After the College Football Playoff bungled their selections today, is there any doubt that college basketball is the superior sport? An undefeated team would never get left out of the NCAA tournament. College hoops gives us parity! You’re not getting the same four teams in the Final Four every year! There are way more than 10 schools that have a legitimate chance at a national championship, too. It’s the literal driver of revenue that keeps the NCAA afloat. Hoops > football every day of the week.

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