Off The Burner 12.6.23

Welcome to Off the Burner – a semi-regular stream of consciousness about college hoops.

I am Officially Concerned about Michigan State.

I got to enjoy the sights and sounds of the Breslin Center last night after a wonderful pre-game meal at Crunchy’s (thanks for your recommendations). There was cautious optimism in the building during warmups, with Sparty coming off an 86-55 rout of Georgia Southern. Once the ball tipped and Wisconsin threw the first punch, the air left the building and the Izzone looked like they’d seen a ghost.

Michigan State’s problems on offense are troubling. At times, there were up to four guys on the floor that looked uncomfortable with the ball in their hands. There is absolutely zero production from the frontcourt. At 6’9″ and 250lbs, Mady Sissoko might as well have been invisible. Carson Cooper is at least a presence on the offensive glass. I’m also worried about Malik Hall – he has no confidence right now.

In the backcourt, Tyson Walker will continue to do Tyson Walker things, but he needs help. AJ Hoggard was the only other player in double-figures and no one else had more than five points. Fears and Holloman have shown flashes, but they’re clearly not ready for a bigger role. And I love Coen Carr’s dunks as much as anyone, but if he’s not crashing the offensive glass and catching lobs, then it’s basically 5-on-4.

Tom Izzo is a Hall-of-Fame coach and we have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll get it fixed, but I’m not sure it’s possible with this roster.

Terrance Shannon, Jr. is playing like an All-American.

The fifth-year senior is HOOPIN’. Through eight games, Shannon is averaging 21.6pts, 4.0rebs and 2.8asts. His eFG% is 65.7%, 12 points higher than his previous career best. His offensive rating is 17 points higher than it’s ever been.

Last night against Florida Atlantic, he and teammate Marcus Domask both went for 33 points. Shannon was a hyper-efficient 10-14 from the floor and 11-13 from the free throw line. His development from behind the arc is what’s taken his game to another level. Last year he shot almost twice as many threes as he did the year prior and his percentages suffered. This year, he’s off to a hot start making 24-53 (45.3%). He’s likely due for some regression, but his early success has opened the floor for guys like Domask and Luke Goode to get open looks.

Shannon is playing like an All-American right now and if he can keep this up, Illinois will be a Final Four caliber team in March.

Oklahoma’s defense is for real.

Porter Moser has done it again. The calling card of his best Loyola Chicago teams was defense and he’s finally got it figured out in Norman. The Sooners are 9th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They’re 13th in KenPom’s AdjD.

After a back-and-forth first half against Providence, OU put the clamps on. They went on a 24-4 run over the span of 10 minutes to put the game out of reach. The Friars were held to 51 points after scoring at least 70 in their first eight games.

This is without a doubt Moser’s best team at Oklahoma. After an up and down first two seasons, he hit the portal and found three of his top four scorers in Javian McCollum (Siena), John Hugley IV (Pitt) and Jalon Moore (Georgia Tech). His best player was developed the old-fashioned way. Otega Oweh has made a huge jump from his freshman year. The 6’5″ guard was a fringe rotation guy last season, averaging 4.8pts in 13 minutes per game. He really started to put it together towards the end of the year and now he’s leading the team in scoring at 15.4ppg. Porter’s got himself a balanced attack that gets the job done on both ends of the floor.

Cliff Ellis is retiring.

Cliff Ellis is set to announce his retirement today after 49 years roaming the collegiate sidelines. Ellis amassed 895 total wins, with 817 at the Division I level. He won eight regular season conference championships and made the NCAA tournament 10 times in his career. Rumors have circulated the last few years about his pending retirement and the day has finally come. He will hand off the reigns to associate head coach Benny Moss.

The timing suggests Ellis is doing everything he can to make sure Moss gets the job. He’ll likely stay around the staff in a consulting role, but Moss will have every opportunity to earn the job outright this season. Other names to watch if the decide to go a different direction are Gregg Marshall, BJ McKie (Wake Forest AC), Claude Pardue (Tulane AC) and Kotie Kimble (Miami AC).

Will Wade set to return to the sidelines.

Ladies and gentleman, he’s back. Will Wade returns to the sidelines for the first time in over a year after serving a 10-game suspension to start the season. His McNeese team is 8-2 with big time road wins over VCU and UAB. His assistant coaches Brandon Chambers and Vernon Hamilton did a great job steering the ship in his absence. Their work won’t go unnoticed either, as I expect one of them to take over when Wade eventually moves on from Lake Charles.

The Cowboys are far and away the best team in the Southland and will likely runaway with the conference title. They’re NCAA tournament good and could easily make the second weekend with the right draw. Wade is already on the shortlist for several future openings at the high major level and he’ll be back in the national spotlight in a few short months.

BYU is gaming the metrics to perfection.

Whether it was intentional or not, the Cougars are out to break the computers. BYU is 8-0, with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. Their schedule is a mixed bag of bad teams and high majors that don’t move the metrics needle. This morning, BYU was vaulted to No. 1 in the NET rankings after a 41-point dismantling of Evansville. They’re 6th in KenPom and 5th in both EvanMiya and Haslametrics. If you remove preseason bias on BartTorvik, the Cougars are 2nd.

So the question is – is this team good?? I think so. They’re shooting the ball at an unbelievable rate. They’ve got four high-volume guys shooting over 43% from three. Defensively, they have the best 3p% in the country. The Cougars will play their first true road game on Saturday at Utah. What better way to determine BYU’s value than The Holy War? After that, the non-con schedule doesn’t see another opponent ranked inside the KenPom top-190.

Big 12 play is obviously a gauntlet, but BYU has set themselves up to take a few lumps and remain one of the top teams in the country from a metrics perspective. Losses in the power conferences are much more palatable in the computer’s eyes. Take Ohio State for example. Last year they lost 14 of 15 in Big Ten play and only dropped from 18 to 63 in KenPom. Mark Pope’s squad has positioned themselves nicely for an at-large bid, even if they finish under .500 in league play. Take notes, Buzz Williams.

Follow @trillydonovan on X (Twitter). Stay tuned to burnerball.com to keep up with all things coaching carousel and transfer portal.

Burner Ball is sponsored by prepscouting.net. Prep Scouting is a NCAA Certified Scouting Service used by over 100 men’s college basketball programs since 2010.