Preseason Coaching Carousel Breakdown

At the beginning of every month, we’ll give you the most comprehensive coaching carousel coverage in college basketball. Here’s where everything stands on November 1 – the preseason edition of the coaching carousel breakdown.

High-Major Hot Seat

Brad Brownell (Clemson)

Is there anyone more synonymous with the hot seat than Brad Brownell? He’s been on the chopping block so many years in a row that we’ve named an award after him. Last year the Tigers started the season 18-4, but stumbled into the finish and missed the NCAA Tournament. They were bounced in the first round of the NIT at home by Morehead State, which forced athletic director Graham Neff to come out with a statement saying Brownell would get another year. Clemson’s current roster is built to win, so anything less than a NCAA Tournament berth could finally spell the end of Brownell’s tenure.

John Calipari (Kentucky)

Only at Kentucky can a man with a $33M buyout land on the hot seat. Kentucky has expectations like no other job in the country and John Calipari has not lived up to them the last three seasons. Since making the Elite Eight in 2019, Kentucky hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Off the court, Calipari’s relationship with athletic director Mitch Barnhart has deteriorated over the years. Public spats over facilities and funding have made things tense in Lexington. Big Blue Nation is not afraid to express their displeasure with how things have gone lately and they’re also not afraid to find some loose change to fund a buyout. Another first weekend exit could be the tipping point that ends Calipari’s wildly successful run at Kentucky.

Kenny Payne (Louisville)

Louisville is a top-10 job in the country, which makes it all the more surprising that they had one of the worst seasons in high-major basketball history. The biggest question going into this year is what will it take to earn a third season? Another 4-28 record definitely won’t cut it, but what’s the bare minimum? A .500 season? Passing the eye test? If things don’t turn around quickly, we could be looking at a new coach in the Yum! Center next season.

Ben Johnson (Minnesota)

The Ben Johnson experiment has not started off well in Minnesota. After two seasons, Johnson is 22-39 (6-33 B10). The Gophers had the third fewest wins of any power conference school last season and finished last in the Big Ten for the first time in over 50 years. The off-season transfer haul didn’t inspire confidence, but they do return one of the best bigs in the league in Dawson Garcia. If Johnson has another bad year, the only thing that may save him is his buyout. He would be owed 75% of his remaining salary, or somewhere in the neighborhood of $8M. Minnesota alum Niko Medved has his eyes on this one.

Fred Hoiberg (Nebraska)

The Mayor’s return to college hasn’t gone quite as planned. What was thought to be a slam dunk hire in 2019 has been underwhelming at best. Nebraska has gone 40-83 in four seasons under Hoiberg. There is reason for optimism though, as the Huskers finished the year strong and landed right at .500 for the season. Nebraska AD Trev Alberts feels similarly, saying in an off-season interview that the team made progress and showed resiliency during the year. The other thing Hoiberg has going for him is Nebraska’s recent overhaul of their football program. The Huskers are set to pay Matt Rhule $72M over the next eight years. All of these factors made it easy for Alberts to keep Hoiberg for a fifth season, but another underwhelming performance could lead to a change next spring.

Hubert Davis (North Carolina)

North Carolina became the first preseason No. 1 to miss the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded in 1985. Hubert Davis finds himself in a “prove it” year just two seasons removed from making the national championship game. The Carolina faithful know the Heels have played approximately four weeks of good basketball in the Davis era and they won’t tolerate another season of mediocrity. UNC revamped the roster this off-season and they look like a tournament team on paper. If the Tar Heels miss the dance again, it could lead to a massive overhaul in Chapel Hill.

Chris Holtmann (Ohio State)

If Ohio State fans had a say in the matter, they would’ve fired Chris Holtmann in February. The Buckeyes went through a stretch where they lost 14 out of 15 games in conference play. Ohio State missed the tournament for the first time in the Holtmann era and failed to win 20 games for only the second time in 20 years. The biggest knock on Holtmann’s resume is the lack of NCAA tournament success. The Buckeyes haven’t made the second weekend during his tenure, which isn’t good enough for a program with 11 Final Fours. Holtmann’s buyout is near $20M, one of the highest in the country, but the school will find the money if there isn’t progress made this season.

Dana Altman (Oregon)

We might be a year too early on this one, but it’s time to start talking about Dana Altman at Oregon. Altman has taken the Ducks to heights they’ve never seen in his 13 seasons. The last two years, however, Oregon has gone back-to-back seasons with 15 losses and no NCAA tournament. With a looming move to the Big Ten, Altman needs to turn things around in Eugene. Increased revenue streams will make the buyout easier to swallow and another lackluster season will put the Ducks behind the eight-ball when it comes to recruiting against their new conference foes. If Oregon misses the tournament for a third consecutive season, it could very well expedite Altman’s retirement plans.

Wayne Tinkle (Oregon State)

Wayne Tinkle is 127-158 in nine seasons at Oregon State. Aside from a fluke Elite Eight run in 2021, Tinkle hasn’t done much to move the needle in Corvallis. Thanks to some fantastic agent work, he signed an extension with a massive buyout after the 2021 season. Since then, he’s 14-49 and this year’s roster doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that they’ll turn it around. It’ll take another trip to the NCAA tournament to keep Tinkle in town after this season.

Jerod Haase (Stanford)

In one of the more puzzling moves of the off-season, Stanford athletic director Bernard Muir opted to keep Jerod Haase around for another season. Muir had an opportunity to grab mid-major darling and Stanford alum Mark Madsen, but decided to stick with Haase because of a big-name recruiting class. Haase is 112-109 in seven seasons with no NCAA tournament appearances. With an upcoming move to the ACC, the pressure is on for Haase to deliver. Another season without a tournament will likely spell the end of Haase’s tenure. If it doesn’t, it shows that Stanford is unserious about their men’s basketball program.

Johnny Dawkins (UCF)

Johnny Dawkins has one tournament appearance in seven seasons at UCF. While that is one more than his predecessor, things are different now in Orlando. The expectations are raised thanks to an expedited transition into big boy basketball. Dawkins survived this off-season, but is firmly on the hot seat heading into 23-24 because of a reportedly rocky relationship with athletic director Terry Mohajir. Mohajir didn’t hire Dawkins, so he’s less likely to go to bat for him if things turn south. Dawkins likely needs an NCAA tournament appearance this season to continue his tenure at UCF.

Mike Hopkins (Washington)

The Mike Hopkins experiment hasn’t gone quite as planned in Seattle. Hopkins is 101-91 through six seasons, with only one NCAA tournament appearance to show for it. The Huskies invested heavily into their program this off-season, bringing in Larry Brown and putting together NIL packages that are competitive in today’s landscape. The Huskies are going all-in, so the expectation is it translates to more on-court success. Hopkins missed his opportunity to return to Syracuse, so he’ll need to win big this year to avoid being out of a job.

Josh Eilert (West Virginia)

Eilert makes the hot seat list by default because of his interim status. He’s got the roster to be successful, but anything short of the NCAA tournament will result in a national search for the job.

Greg Gard (Wisconsin)

Greg Gard became the first Wisconsin coach to miss multiple NCAA tournaments since Dick Bennett in the late 1990s. Gard is also responsible for two of the three worst finishes in KenPom’s rankings since the site’s inception. Wisconsin athletic director Chris McIntosh is no stranger to making big moves when he needs to. He let go of long-time football coach Paul Chryst in the middle of the season last year and made a splashy hire in Luke Fickell to replace him. Gard’s buyout recently increased to $12M, which may seem prohibitive for most schools, but not for a B10 power. It’s very hard being the guy that replaces “the guy”. Gard’s lack of post-season success and recent missed tournament put him squarely on the hot seat heading into 23-24.

Mid-Major Hot Seat

Dwayne Killings (Albany)

Dwayne Killings took over at Albany two years ago and hasn’t done much to inspire confidence. The former Marquette assistant is 21-41 in two seasons, but more importantly found himself in legal trouble stemming from an incident in November 2022. Killings was charged with 4th degree assault and suspended five games after allegedly pushing one of his players into a locker before a game. The charge will be dismissed in a year, pending completion of a “corrective thinking” class. Albany opted to keep Killings, but he will need to turn things around on the court to ensure he gets another season with the Great Danes.

Jared Grasso (Bryant)

Jared Grasso wasn’t supposed to be on this list, but he finds himself there after the school announced he is on a leave of absence. We go into detail on the situation here. Phil Martelli, Jr. is on interim duty and it sounds like he may be there a while.

John Smith (Cal Poly)

John Smith is 26-89 in four seasons as the head coach at Cal Poly. The school doesn’t exactly have a storied history, but winning one game in conference play twice during your tenure is hard to ignore. There were rumblings that a change could made this spring, but Smith was able to earn another season. Don’t be surprised if this is one of the first jobs available in March.

Reggie Witherspoon (Canisius)

Reggie Witherspoon is 94-112 in seven seasons at Canisius. He hasn’t won more than 12 games in four consecutive seasons and the program has become stagnant since his first season in Buffalo. Athletic director Bill Maher had to issue a vote of confidence for the Golden Griffs head coach after rumors swirled of his potential dismissal. All signs point to this year being Witherspoon’s last unless there’s a quick turnaround on the court.

Barclay Radebaugh (Charleston Southern)

Barclay Radebaugh has one winning season in the last eight years. Charleston Southern is one of the toughest jobs in the country, but at some point you have to turn the page and revitalize the program. For the second year in a row, athletic director Jeff Barber released a statement saying Radebaugh would return. If things don’t improve, I don’t think we’ll see a similar statement next spring.

Aaron Fearne (Charlotte)

Fearne has one year to show proof of concept that he’s the right guy for Charlotte. Athletic director Mike Hill is desperate to get this right after things didn’t work out with his first football and hoops hires. Ultimately, I expect Charlotte to conduct a national search and hire a sitting head coach at season’s end.

Jim Engles (Columbia)

Jim Engles is 46-121 in six seasons at Columbia. He hasn’t won more than 11 games in a season and the Lions haven’t been remotely competitive in the league since the departure of Kyle Smith. Engles enters 23-24 on one of the hottest seats in the country. Plenty of people will lineup for this one if it becomes available and Engles will need his best season yet to keep his tenure going.

Dave McLaughlin (Dartmouth)

Dave McLaughlin is 56-110 in six seasons at Dartmouth. He finds himself in a very similar position as Jim Engles at Columbia. The Big Green are simply not competitive in the Ivy League. McLaughlin hasn’t been able to recreate the success he had in nine seasons at Stonehill. He’s got two years left on his contract, but new athletic director Mike Harrity is reportedly applying the pressure to improve this season. We could see a changing of the guard in Hanover next spring.

Anthony Grant (Dayton)

Anthony Grant heads into his seventh season at Dayton with one NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it. Every head coach at Dayton since Jim O’Brien (1989-1994) has made the tournament at least twice during their tenure. Last year, the Flyers dealt with an injury bug that derailed their season. Malachi Smith and Kobe Elvis only played in 19 of 34 games and were never able to get in sync. There’s reason for optimism though, as Dayton brings back the league’s best player in DaRon Holmes and hopes to have a healthy backcourt. The Flyers are the presumed favorite to win the league again. Should they miss the tournament, it could mean the end of Grant’s tenure at his alma mater.

Mike Davis (Detroit Mercy)

Mike Davis is 59-88 in five seasons at Detroit Mercy. The former Indiana and Texas Southern coach has struggled despite having his son, Antoine, nearly set the career scoring record during his tenure. There were rumblings that Davis could get dismissed this spring, but the optics of letting go of the father of the all-time leading scorer are not good. Davis will likely need to finish over .500 this season to get another year in Detroit.

Chris Casey (Fairfield)

Casey takes over as the interim head coach for the season after the sudden departure of Jay Young. He’ll need a miracle season to get the interim tag removed.

Jeremy Ballard (Florida International)

Is Jeremy Ballard on the hot seat? Depending on who you talk to, the answers vary. Outgoing athletic director Pete Garcia signed Ballard to an extension in 2021 that has him under contract until 2026. The buyout isn’t prohibitive, but who would FIU hire that’s better than what they currently have? Ballard is 77-79 in five seasons, but hasn’t had a winning season since year two. His teams have consistently fallen victim to the transfer portal and FIU is one of the toughest jobs in the country. Another season under .500 might be enough for new athletic director Scott Carr to make a move.

Justin Hutson (Fresno State)

Justin Hutson is 80-73 in five seasons at Fresno State, with no NCAA tournament appearances. There were rumblings about a potential dismissal this spring, but Hutson ultimately survived and will finish out the one year remaining on his original contract. Anything short of a 20-win season will likely spell the end of Hutson’s tenure in Fresno.

Luke Yaklich (Illinois-Chicago)

Luke Yaklich is 35-49 in three seasons at Illinois-Chicago and hasn’t had a winning season yet. UIC moved to the MVC from the Horizon League last year and struggled to adjust to the tougher league. Yaklich signed a one-year extension prior to last season that has him under contract until 25-26, but multiple sources indicate this could be his last season unless the Flames show significant improvement.

Matt Crenshaw (IUPUI)

Matt Crenshaw inherited a mess and hasn’t been able to turn things around. He’s 8-53 in two seasons at his alma mater. IUPUI hasn’t seen a winning season since Ron Hunter left in 2010 and they do not look like they’re in position to change that any time soon. It will likely take at least a double-digit win season for Crenshaw to earn a fourth year in Indianapolis.

Darrell Walker (Little Rock)

Darrell Walker is 61-86 in five seasons at Little Rock. After winning 21 games his second season, the Trojans have failed to win more than 11 games in three straight years. Walker enters the final year of his contract and it’s unlikely he’ll get another extension if there isn’t any progress made on the court.

Keith Richard (Louisiana Monroe)

Keith Richard is 152-252 in 13 seasons at ULM. The Warhawks haven’t had a winning season since 2019 and this year’s roster doesn’t inspire confidence. Richard’s contract was supposed to run out at the end of last season and there was no public announcement of an extension. He’s likely on a year-by-year basis now, with this season potentially being his last.

Tavaras Hardy (Loyola MD)

Tavaras Hardy is 59-85 in five seasons at Loyola MD. The Northwestern alum and long-time high major assistant hasn’t been able to get it going yet and time is running out. Another losing campaign could result in the end of his tenure at Loyola.

Dana Ford (Missouri State)

Dana Ford is a respectable 89-66 at Missouri State, but has no conference regular season or tournament titles to show for it. Rumors swirled towards the end of the season about Ford’s potential dismissal, but athletic director Kyle Moats issued a vote of confidence in late February. Ford’s buyout is cut in half after this season, making it much more palatable should Moats want to make a move. It will likely take another 20-win season and/or a tournament appearance for Ford to get another year in Springfield.

Matt Driscoll (North Florida)

Matt Driscoll is 217-231 in 14 seasons at North Florida, but he’s 33-52 over the last three years. He’s got two years left on his contract after receiving an extension in 2020, but the results have dropped off significantly since that 21-win season. North Florida isn’t an easy job by any means. The program is required to play multiple guarantee games every year and there isn’t much fan support. Nearby Jacksonville University has started pouring all of their resources into basketball and they’ve had more success in recent years. There were whispers this spring that Driscoll’s tenure could come to an end. He survived the off-season, but is firmly on the hot seat heading into 23-24.

Shane Burcar (Northern Arizona)

Shane Burcar is the only Big Sky coach on the hot seat heading into 23-24. He’s 42-76 in four years and has two years remaining on his contract. Burcar was 277-110 in 12 seasons as a high school head coach, but that success hasn’t translated to the collegiate level. If there isn’t any improvement this season, it very likely will be his last in Flagstaff.

Lorenzo Romar (Pepperdine)

After winning the CBI in 2020, the wheels have fallen off in Lorenzo Romar’s second stint at Pepperdine. The Waves finished last in the WCC in back-to-back seasons and Romar isn’t getting any younger. This may be a situation where we see Romar “retire” before he gets let go.

Quinton Ferrell (Presbyterian)

Quinton Ferrell is 34-83 in four seasons at Presbyterian. The Blue Hose alum has struggled to get the program going after Dustin Kerns left for Appalachian State. There were rumors this spring that a change could be made, but he was able to survive the cycle. It’s difficult to fire an alum (see: Ewing, Patrick), but if Presbyterian doesn’t turn the corner, it may be time to cut ties.

Andrew Toole (Robert Morris)

Andy Toole has roamed the sidelines at Robert Morris for 13 seasons. During that time he’s 216-210, with two NCAA tournament appearances. Toole’s tenure started off with a bang. He won 20+ games in four of his first five seasons. Robert Morris was a fixture atop the NEC standings, but when the school moved to the Horizon, the success diminished quickly. The Colonials are 28-56 since joining the league and haven’t finished better than 7th in the standings. Toole is under contract through 25-26, but he might not get there if Bobby Mo doesn’t return to NEC form this season.

Travis Ford (Saint Louis)

Despite four 20-win seasons in the last five years, Travis Ford finds himself on the hot seat heading into 23-24. Ford enters his eighth year at Saint Louis with only one NCAA Tournament appearance. The Billikens had one of the oldest teams in the country last year, led by First Team All-A10 point guard Yuri Collins. SLU couldn’t capitalize on a down year for the league, losing three times to eventual champion VCU. Saint Louis athletic director Chris May issued a statement and vote of confidence at the end of the season. If there’s anything we’ve learned based on previous experience, it’s that votes of confidence are a kiss of death more often than not. Saint Louis needs a big year if Ford wants to see another season at Chaifetz Arena.

Billy Lange (St. Joseph’s)

Billy Lange is 38-77 in four years at St. Joe’s. He’s responsible for the only two single-digit-win seasons in the last three decades. So why did he receive a multi-year contract extension after the season? The terms of the contract weren’t disclosed, but extensions like this typically satisfy recruit’s stability concerns and include a buyout reduction. Athletic director Jill Bodensteiner threw her support behind Lange, saying she was pleased with the progress the Hawks have made over the last few years. There is some optimism around the program heading into 23-24, but don’t be surprised to see Lange on this list at the end of the year if things don’t go well.

Geno Ford (Stony Brook)

Geno Ford is 58-62 in four seasons at Stony Brook. The Seawolves finished 11-22 in their first year in the CAA. Ford enters the last year of his contract and has yet to sign an extension. He isn’t necessarily a lame duck, but he will be coaching for his job this season.

Steve Henson (UTSA)

Steve Henson will return to San Antonio for his eighth year, but heads into the last year of his contract in 23-24. After two consecutive 10-22 finishes, Henson is firmly on the hot seat. The Roadrunners are 99-123 with him at the helm and haven’t made it further than the quarterfinals of their conference tournament. Joining the AAC means the expectations will be much higher this season. Anything less than a .500 record will likely result in Henson’s dismissal.

Dane Fischer (William & Mary)

To put it plainly, William & Mary messed up when they got rid of Tony Shaver and they are still paying for it today. Dane Fischer is 46-68 in four seasons and is another coach heading into the last year of his contract without an extension. There were whispers a move would be made this spring, but the $300k buyout was enough to keep him for another season. Similar to Ford, not necessarily a lame duck, but needs to win this season.

Retirement Watch

Cliff Ellis (Coastal Carolina)

Keith Dambrot (Duquesne)

Leonard Hamilton (Florida State)

Fran Dunphy (La Salle)

Greg Kampe (Oakland)

Jeff Jones (Old Dominion)

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